Natural Disasters and the Risk of Violent Civil Conflict
Does the occurrence of a natural disaster such as an earthquake, volcanic eruption, tsunami, ﬂood, hurricane, epidemic, heat wave, and ⁄ or plague increase the risk of violent civil conﬂict in a society? This study uses available data for 187 political units for the period 1950–2000 to systematically explore this question that has received remarkably little attention in the voluminous literature on civil war. We ﬁnd that natural disasters signiﬁcantly increase the risk of violent civil conﬂict both in the short and medium term, speciﬁcally in low- and middle-income countries that have intermediate to high levels of inequality, mixed political regimes, and sluggish economic growth.
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Tags: civil conflict, Civil Society, disaster management, earthquakes, floorings, Governance, natural disasters